“Welcome to Atlanta, where Kirk Cousins and the new-look Falcons had a rough start to the season only to bounce back last week with a win over New Orleans. And tonight, in Mercedes-Benz Stadium and in front of our Prime Video audience, they can take early control in the NFC South with a win over Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”
— Al Michaels on Oct. 3, maybe.
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This is a perfectly reasonable thing — maybe even a likely thing — Michaels could be saying as the broadcast for the NFL’s Week 5 “Thursday Night Football” game opens. The Falcons have a quietly tricky start to the season that is balanced by early home games within the division that will provide an opportunity for a bounce-back if needed.
However, we’re not here today to talk about likely outcomes. Today, we’re going to talk about the best-case — and, sorry, worst-case — scenarios that could play out in 2024 for Atlanta, which opens training camp on July 24 under new head coach Raheem Morris. In the spirit of optimism, we’ll start with the best cases.
Five best-case scenarios
Falcons start 2-1
Sure, it’s possible the Falcons could start 3-0 … or 6-0 … or whatever-and-0, but let’s keep this close to reality. They open the season at home against Pittsburgh, then travel to Philadelphia to play the Eagles on “Monday Night Football” before returning home to play the Kansas City Chiefs on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 3.
The Steelers will be a complete mystery on offense with two new quarterbacks and a new offensive coordinator (more on that later). The Eagles will be motivated, particularly early and on national television, to prove last year’s fade was a fluke. The Chiefs will be the Chiefs.
If Atlanta, while implementing a new offense and defense, wins two of these games, it will signal something different is happening.
Kirk Cousins throws for 4,500 yards
Cousins’ career high for single-season passing yards is the 4,547 he had in 2022, and he was leading the NFC in touchdown passes when he was injured in Week 8 last season. The offense Atlanta is installing has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in five of the last six seasons, so Cousins is in position to top his personal mark in his 13th year if a young and unproven receiving corps can rise to the challenge.
The defensive stars shine
That would mean another big season for safety Jessie Bates, who had six interceptions in his first season in Atlanta, plus a reinvigorated defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and more impact from cornerback A.J. Terrell. Jarrett has promised he’s as motivated for his 10th year as he’s ever been after missing nine games last year because of an ACL tear. If he can approach his career high of 7 1/2 sacks, it will have positive ripple effects across the defensive line. As for Terrell, he will be playing in the final year of his contract unless he signs a new deal in the next two months. That would make it a good time to get his first interception since 2021 (and maybe a few more).
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson could be in for a big season in the new offensive system. (Norm Hall / Getty Images)
Bijan Robinson rushes for 1,300 yards
This might not be the best case for Tyler Allgeier, who deserves the type of workload that would keep Robinson under this total, but the Falcons drafted Robinson in the top 10 to be a star, and he needs big numbers if he’s going to be that. Kyren Williams rushed for 1,144 yards in this offensive system last season with the Rams, so the potential for a big number is there if Robinson proves he’s ready for that type of workload. As a rookie, he carried the ball 214 times for 976 yards.
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A real home-field advantage
The Falcons have a losing record in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The .474 winning percentage they have posted in their seven years in the building is 22nd best in the league during that time.
More viscerally, every Atlanta fan who attends home games knows the feeling of being in the building and outnumbered by fans of the opposing team. If the Falcons turn their fortunes around, that can change. The biggest test this year will be Week 9 against Dallas. If Atlanta is heading in the right direction, the number of Falcons fans should at least match the number of Cowboys fans in the building.
GO DEEPERHow will Falcons' new coaching staff affect Bijan Robinson's fantasy potential?Five worst-case scenarios
The Steelers score 40
Former Falcons head coach and current Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith began drawing up his Week 1 game plan the moment the NFL released the schedule. Smith has four things going for him in this matchup. One, he knows the weaknesses of Atlanta’s defensive personnel. Two, he has two athletic quarterbacks at his disposal in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Three, no one in the league has any idea what his system will look like early in the season. Four, he really, really wants to win this game.
The most the Falcons ever scored under Smith was 37 points, and they scored 30 or more only four times in three seasons. If Pittsburgh hits the 40-point mark, Falcons fans will leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium fuming, and Smith will leave chuckling.
Loss to Saints results in an 0-4 start
It’s realistic to think the Falcons could start the season 0-3, and honestly, it’s not the end of the world if they do because they have two winnable division games in Weeks 4 and 5 against New Orleans and Tampa Bay. However, if the Saints win in Atlanta to drop the Falcons to 0-4, the bloom will be completely off the rose. Only one NFL team (the 1992 Chargers) has made the playoffs after starting 0-4.
Can the Falcons dethrone Baker Mayfield and the NFC South champion Buccaneers this season? (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
Baker is good, Bryce is better and Derek is OK
The best news for Atlanta in 2024 is it has a new quarterback. The second-best news is it’s still in its old division — the NFC South. The Falcons went 3-3 in the division last season. They need to top that mark this year because the non-division schedule has gotten tougher. The Falcons now have the best quarterback in the division, and they need that gap to remain pretty wide. If Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield has another good year, Carolina’s Bryce Young takes a big step forward and New Orleans’ Derek Carr plays average football, the division games get trickier.
GO DEEPERRanking Falcons' position groups by concern level: Can receivers rise to occasion?Losing at Minnesota
The Falcons and Vikings basically swapped team-building philosophies in the offseason. Atlanta decided it couldn’t win big without a veteran quarterback like Cousins and spent $100 million (at least) to sign him. Minnesota decided it couldn’t win big while devoting that much capital to Cousins and let him walk out the door while handing its future to a rookie quarterback.
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That rookie quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, almost certainly will be starting by the time Atlanta travels to Minnesota on Dec. 8. If the Vikings beat their old and expensive quarterback with a young and cheap rookie, it’s going to make it look like Minnesota made the right move.
Nothing to play for in Week 18
The Carolina Panthers come to Atlanta for the final regular-season game of the season. Everyone expects Carolina to be out of the playoff hunt by then. If the Falcons are, too, and this game doesn’t have any stakes, it’s going be a depressing scene at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
(Top photos of Kirk Cousins and Arthur Smith: Brynn Anderson / Associated Press; Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
Josh Kendall , a Georgia native, has been following the Falcons since Jeff Van Note was the richly bearded face of the franchise. For 20 years before joining The Athletic NFL staff, he covered football in the SEC. He also covers golf for The Athletic. Follow Josh on Twitter @JoshTheAthletic
